changes on the horizon

This forecast starts with more triple digits, but they may be the last of the year if the next 8-10 days play out right.

Today is just hot with an isolated shower/storm possible, mostly east of I-45. Highs will be in the 100º-101º for most, with humidity pushing heat index values up to the 105º range. That means Heat Advisories are back area-wide. We’ll likely see those extended through at least tomorrow, possibly Monday/Tuesday.

Wednesday we start setting up for changes. The high pressure ridge will shift east, allowing us to shave a degree or two off the forecast high as high pressure won’t be as concentrated here. That also will open up a lane for a strong cold front that models have pretty consistently scheduled for next weekend. Timing is still very much in flux, as is its impact (some push us right back to the upper 90’s by the following Tuesday/Wednesday, others keep the cooler air coming), but either way, a strong front would go a long way to pushing our temperature ceiling down and assisting the natural seasonal shift that will continue through the latter half of this month. I’m cautiously optimistic here, as I have seen far too many strong fronts like this change as we got closer - even the ones models almost guaranteed us beyond the 7-day forecast (and even less). That said, that first strong cold front of the season has to come sometime…better sooner rather than later! That front will enter the 7-day forecast in the next few days.