change is coming

There are changes coming to our weather pattern, if we can just be patient through a little more heat.

Heat advisories continue as temperatures will top out in the 100º-101º range today, pushing heat index values up to 105º+. We might shave a degree off of that the next couple of days, and then another one Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure calms down and shifts a bit.

We’ll see that high pressure continue to shift Saturday, and I think we’ll only top out in the mid-upper 90’s that day - perfect for Red Oak Founders Day! I’ll be there at the South Metro Weather booth. It will still be hot, which is why I was happy to sponsor the cooling station.

A cold front is still scheduled for Sunday/Monday. I have seen some change in the models, mostly that I’m not seeing quite the dramatic plunge of cooler air behind it that was there the last couple of days. I did see some comments on Facebook that showed weather apps advertising highs in the 70’s (those apps run on algorithms that just spit out random model data without studying the trends to know what’s realistic or not), but I never believed that was tenable. I do still expect lower temps on the other side, and I still think low-mid 90’s is a more fair expectation. Maybe some upper 80’s if we can get the trough to sink down far enough. It does look like high pressure will be set to return by the end of the month, but at this point, it doesn’t look like it will bring triple digits with it. That’s way too far out to know, though, so we’ll see.

As for rain chances with this front, I unfortunately don’t see anything impressive. The El Niño pattern will show itself more as we get farther into the fall season, and this front represents the first big change in our pattern for quite a while, so I have faith that a wetter pattern overall is on the way…just not yet.